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Melbourne Cup Tips 2016 – local can hold off the internationals

  • Jameka gets the run of the race.
  • Internationals planning to make it a genuinely run race.
Nick Hall riding Jameka to win the Caulfield Cup

Australia’s most iconic race, the Melbourne Cup (3200m), is set to be run on Tuesday, November 1, with 24 stayers set to battle at famous Flemington.

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Each lead-up race has been run and won, and there are some strong form lines coming through the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate, Lexus Stakes, Moonee Valley Cup, Geelong Cup, The Bart Cummings, Herbert Power Stakes and a handful of international races.

As has become commonplace, there are a few internationals that we are yet to see race in Australia, with the likes of Japanese stayer Curren Mirotic, Heartbreak City and the Saeed Bin Suroor-prepared Beautiful Romance.

Bin Suroor’s other runner, Secret Number, is an interesting runner and I regard him as the strongest of the pair.

He hadn’t raced for nearly a year when finishing runner-up in the 2014 September Stakes (2400m) before coming to Australia and finishing runner-up to Dandino in the Queens Cup (2600m) when missing out on a Cup berth.

Again he was given nearly a year off before returning with a strong victory in the Doonside Cup (2012m) at Ayr in Great Britain.

Japanese stayer Curren Mirotic can really mix his form and is proven over 3200m having finished runner-up in the Tenno Sho (3200m), but he has drawn the cursed barrier 18 and will need to become the first horse in history to win the Cup from there.

Heartbreak City was a four-length winner of the Ebor Handicap (2816m), where he carried 55kg, but Oceanographer who won Saturday’s Lexus Stakes (2500m) meets him 7kg better at the weights for finishing nine lengths behind him in the Ebor and looks better placed in the Cup.

Oceanographer was also checked and held up at the 200m mark in the Ebor but was again doing his best work late.

Qewy and Grey Lion finished ahead of Oceanographer in the Geelong Cup and need to be respected, but that pair led in the Geelong Cup and are likely to be up on the speed in the Melbourne Cup, and that may pose a problem with more speed being injected into the race.

Irish St Leger (2816m) winner Wicklow Brave led all the way to defeat the highly-touted Order Of St George, and having drawn barrier 24 in the Cup, it’s hard to see him doing anything else but leading again.

Big Orange also has some pace and tried to lead all the way in last year’s Melbourne Cup before being challenged at the 400m mark and battling away to hold 5th place.

Last year’s Cup was run at a leisurely tempo and Big Orange still struggled to hold them off, so with more pressure coming this year, I can’t see him outkicking the swoopers, however, he is reportedly going better this year and if he gets some cover, he may get every chance.

Of the likely leaders, I think Wicklow Brave has the best chance despite drawing barrier 24.

It was champion jumps rider Ruby Walsh that suggested Frankie Dettori try and lead all the way in the Irish St Leger, and with that tactic proving successful, they would be crazy to try and slot in behind the speed from the wide gate instead of pressing on to lead.

The Caulfield Cup has always been a good guide to the Melbourne Cup, and from this year’s race, there are a few of standouts.

The winner, Jameka, has to be included, while Almoonqith and Exospheric put in eye catching runs also.

Almoonqith has never placed at Flemington and that is a concern, and Exospheric is a query at the distance and was comfortably beaten by Jameka.

The more I watch the Caulfield Cup and consider Jameka’s overall record, the more convinced I am she’s the one to beat on the first Tuesday in November.

She travelled into the turn so strong, and seemed to have so much more to offer, I doubt she will have any problem running the extra trip.

Her Caulfield Cup winning time of 2:28.8 rates strongly, and she has drawn barrier 3 which will give Nicholas Hall the opportunity to let his mare roll along and assess the speed from out wide.

With a few internationals looking to make this year’s Cup a genuinely run race, Jameka will get the perfect trail behind the speed and won’t need a miracle to get through a wall of horses in the straight.

The Melbourne Cup always produces some hard luck stories, but Jameka shouldn’t be one of them.

Others top chances may have to do too much work up front, others will be caught wide and have to cover ground and others will have to dodge and weave as they set sail for the winning post.

If Jameka can run a strong 3200m, I don’t think there is a horse in this field that can match motors with her after she enjoys the run of the race.

Hartnell may have beaten her comfortably in the Turnbull Stakes, but I think 2000m is his best distance and the battle would have been much closer over 2400m.

His previous attempts over 3200m are not world-class, and the Melbourne Cup certainly is a world-class race.

The way the race maps, I can see Wicklow Brave heading for home as they enter the straight, Big Orange will be looming large, while Jameka and Oceanographer will be making their runs.

Jameka can hit the lead at the 200m mark and hold on from Oceanographer, Wicklow Brave and Big Orange.

Melbourne Cup 2017

DateTuesday, 7 November, 2017
TrackFlemington Racecourse
ClassGroup 1
Race TypeHandicap
Prize Money$6.2 million
Age3YO and Upwards

Melbourne Cup Betting Pointers

The gruelling staying test is run over 3200m and carries more than just Group 1 status. Horses that claim victory in the race will be forever etched into Australian racing folklore and be celebrated for generations to come. 

Traditional lead-up races have been the Group 1 Caulfield Cup (2400m), held 17 days earlier, and, in more recent times, the Group 1 Cox Plate (2040m) at Moonee Valley and the Group 3 Geelong Cup (2400m) have also been successful lead-up races. 

Fiorente used the Cox Plate as his springboard into the Cup, as did Green Moon in 2012.

In 2010, Americain won the Geelong Cup before claiming Melbourne Cup victory, and in 2011 French galloper Dunaden followed the same path before recording the narrowest win in Cup history when he beat the gallant Red Cadeaux by a whisker.

Some key Melbourne Cup pointers are: 

  • Six-year-olds have a great record in the races
  • Only three favourites have won the Melbourne Cup since 2000
  • Internationals to have had a lead up run in Melbourne perform better than those who haven't

Dunaden wins the 2011 Melbourne Cup

What bets to place on the Melbourne Cup?

There are a number of ways to bet on horse racing this weekend from a standard win or place bet to quadrellas and multibets. 

SINGLE: The most common bet. The single bet involves betting on your selection to win, place, or both (each-way). If betting each-way (see our guide for what an each-way bet is), the stake is doubled as you are betting on your selection to win, and also to place.

QUINELLA: A Quinella bet is available on every thoroughbred, harness and greyhound race provided there are at least three or more runners. To win a Quinella, you must successfully predict the 1st and 2nd placegetters in any order

EXACTA: An exacta is exactly the same as a quinella. However, you must successfully predict the 1st and 2nd placegetters in the correct order

TRIFECTA: A Trifecta bet is available on every thoroughbred, harness and greyhound race provided there are at least four or more runners. To win a Trifecta, you must successfully predict the 1st, 2nd and 3rd placegetters in a given race. 

FIRST4: A First4 bet is available on most thoroughbred, harness and greyhound race provided there are at least four or more runners. To win a First4, you must successfully predict the 1st, 2nd, 3rd and 4th placegetters in a given race. 

MYSTERY BET: A Mystery Bet takes the guess work out of picking a Trifecta and is generated by the betting agency’s computer. The computer system will randomly select three runners and if they fill the placings you win the Trifecta. 

QUADDIE: A Quaddie bet, or Quadrella bet as it is fully known, is available on most thoroughbred, harness and greyhound race meetings. A quaddie is betting on the winners of four nominated races, which are typically the last four races of any meeting, and is a very popular bet. 

MULTIBET: Multibets offer a great way to secure big winning returns on your bets as you combine various bets into one, and are proving to be an extremely popular way to bet. A multibet combines any number of bets from two to 25 into one single bet and dramatically increases the odds. 

PATENT BET: A Patent bet is similar to a three-leg multibet but is made up of seven separate bets: three singles, three doubles and a trio. Where a multibet requires all selections to win for a return, a patent bet will yield a return from just one winner.

ALL-IN BETTING: All-In betting involves a bookmaker offering fixed odds on selected feature races prior to the declaration of the final field. All-In betting on the Melbourne Cup, for example, is available for the better part of 12 months leading into the event. The risk with All-In Betting is that you will not receive your stake back if your horse is scratched.

Alternatively, follow our quick links below to learn more about the various types of horse racing bets.

Betting on the Melbourne Cup

Bookmakers Ladbrokes, CrownBet, Sportsbet and bet365 are among the best places to bet on the Melbourne Cup and all Flemington races. They offer some of the best odds and promotions on the big race and also stream the race live online.

Alternatively, you can collect CrownBet Rewards Points and UBET+ Rewards Points every time you place a bet. Turn them back into betting dollars and use them to win big.

For the best way to make a profit at the Melbourne Cup and Flemington races, read our guide on "How to make money betting online".

Melbourne Cup Live Stream

Australia's leading bookmakers offer you the chance to watch the Melbourne Cup (and all other races from Victorian tracks) free of charge. You can watch all Flemington races including the Melbourne Cup streamed live online at Ladbrokes, CrownBet, Sportsbet and bet365.

Become a member of any of the four bookmakers and enjoy the coverage free. 

To find out how to stream the Melbourne Cup live, click on the dedicated link.

Flemington Racecourse Track Description

Flemington Racecourse is a spacious track with one of the longest straights in Australia at 450m which gives all horses an equal chance with luck in running.

Flemington also has a 1200 metre straight track for racing which is commonly referred to as "The Straight Six" course.

The run to first turn in the Melbourne Cup is 888m, ensuring that no horse has their chances hampered during the opening half-a-mile.

*State exclusions apply to some offers. NSW Residents are excluded from welcome bonuses. Please read the T&Cs of each offer with each bookmaker.

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Melbourne Cup Tips 2016 – local can hold off the internationals

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